Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Mumbai Attacks & The Stock Market...

My first reaction on seeing the footages on the news channels on was awe and desperation. Frenetic phone calls to near and dear ones residing in Mumbai on that fateful night. Then the next reaction was, “how could they”!! As the trauma continued through the next 2 days, I remained glued to the News Channels wishing as to when it would be over. Then finally it was all over, leaving behind millions of scarred minds. Things would never be the same. The threshold was crossed this time.
Numerous articles and blogs have been written on the same, but what I intend to write is something different, something that doesn’t actually register in our minds. 2 days after the incident was over, when the whole incident was playing through my mind was, what would be the impact of this whole event on the STOCK Market, NSE and BSE. Both these exchanges remained closed on 27th Nov. and NSE was on highest level of security after that.
Thinking of the Stock Market in a scenario after the attacks made me remember the movie, Casino Royale, which had an interesting incident. So my curiosity rose and next step was to check out the scrips of Hotels and Tourist Companies who where listed on the Exchange. And I hit the bull’s eye.


Even though the stock market remained volatile as it was earlier, but the interesting part was in the scrips of the Hotel industry in particular. Almost all the Hotels share prices where down atleast 10% (as expected), especially those affected directly, Indian Hotels Company, Asian Hotel, Taj GVK hotels and resorts etc etc.

The points to be focussed here is, are these terror attacks just to create more terror among the people of the country or something much more deeper and hidden. The financial systems have become so much complicated that someone having the proper knowledge can exploit it to unbelievable depths and we the middle income groups, the retail investors roam around crying the losses of few thousands on the scripts in our portfolio.
The point I am trying to make here is, think of the gains people (or terrorists) can make by knowing before hand what’s going to happen in next 24 hours. Knowing that 1 group of shares is going to loose Rs.10 each in next 2 days, money can literally be created out of thin air. Thousands of


complicated financial products like futures, options, shorting opportunities, think about the millions that would have moved during the past 1 week, and that too unfortunately by the wrong people. For the terrorist group, it is like killing 2 birds with a single stone, creating panic and generating profits…
For me 1 thing is very clear, a terrorist attack is not just creating panics but as ROI (return on investment) and funding opportunities for further operations for these agencies. Reports have confirmed huge turn arounds during 9/11 attacks on WTC in the Airline Shares.
Is this what happened on the unfortunate Wednesday night, if so things aren’t over yet. That’s what a group of 10 people could do to a Country of more than a Billion of us. Are the financial systems made so that we could build our dream houses or for people who enjoy destroying the dreams? Are we building our own pitfalls where we would be buried in the end? Think about it…..

- From a concerned Indian